Yes, inflation is out of control

[kevin21boston]

Rico did you see the PPI today?

Market expected a rise of 0.5% but instead we got a surprise of 1.8% for November.

You NEVER see a surprise that large. Usually it's a fraction of a percent off but this surprised everybody (except me). Get ready for the bloodbath when the CPI comes out. Oh boy that should be fun.

[RicoVacilon]

I saw it in someone else's post. I'm neutral on the issue. Was merely pointing out that last month when you said inflation was crazy it was actually negative. A big jump into positive for Nov could be a bad bad sign.

[conviction]

Lol, neutral? Go home, you don't know what's going on. Go play in the sandbox :eek::D:rolleyes::cool:

[theanalogkid]

I saw it in someone else's post. I'm neutral on the issue. Was merely pointing out that last month when you said inflation was crazy it was actually negative. A big jump into positive for Nov could be a bad bad sign.

So you don't care if you have to pay higher prices for things? I don't see how anyone can be neutral.

[RicoVacilon]

By "neutral" I didn't mean "I don't care how the economy turns out." I meant "I'm looking objectively at Kevin's statement." His statement that inflation was out of control (made last month) was simply untenable. This month maybe it won't be. We'll see shortly.

[Gtrght77]

Yay

I hope the entire economy fails. :p

[Nevada_Ballin]

i can still get 10 loaves of Wonder bread for $8


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[kevin21boston]

By "neutral" I didn't mean "I don't care how the economy turns out." I meant "I'm looking objectively at Kevin's statement." His statement that inflation was out of control (made last month) was simply untenable. This month maybe it won't be. We'll see shortly.

LOL it will kill you to admit that I was right.

[RicoVacilon]

LOL it will kill you to admit that I was right.

I have proven how incredibly wrong you were with empirical data. If that's what you call "being right" then you're in for a shock once you quit living in the comfort of you're own mind. :)

[543 Double Play]

Don't Worry, Obama will fix it all. :rolleyes:

[kevin21boston]

Rico you are kidding yourself. On November 29th I said that inflation was out of control. For the month of November the PPI jumped a ridiculously surprising 1.8%

I just don't understand how I'm wrong. I recognized the fact that prices were rapidly going up, made a comment about it, and the third highest increase in PPI since January of 1999 came in for that month. Shocking.

[RicoVacilon]

I just don't understand how I'm wrong.

Then I can't help you. And it appears no one can. Quit tryin to play with the big boys when you aren't ready for it, son.

A refresher on the empirical data I mentioned so you can circle jerk your way into thinking you were right:

Inflation when you made the statement: -.18% (that dash before the decimal means it's a NEGATIVE NUMBER!)
Inflation today: 1.84%

While the 2% jump in one month is notable, it would be ridiculous to say that either number is "out of control" like you attested to last week.

If you'd like to point to other data that shows how bad the economy is, go for it. I'm sure you'll be able to find plenty. But inflation isn't one of them. . . yet.

[theanalogkid]

Then I can't help you. And it appears no one can. Quit tryin to play with the big boys when you aren't ready for it, son.

A refresher on the empirical data I mentioned so you can circle jerk your way into thinking you were right:

Inflation when you made the statement: -.18% (that dash before the decimal means it's a NEGATIVE NUMBER!)
Inflation today: 1.84%

While the 2% jump in one month is notable, it would be ridiculous to say that either number is "out of control" like you attested to last week.

If you'd like to point to other data that shows how bad the economy is, go for it. I'm sure you'll be able to find plenty. But inflation isn't one of them. . . yet.

In a good economy inflation around 3% (not monthly) yearly is acceptable. 2% in a month is not good.

Guess who is responsible though, the Federal Reserve. I can't wait until they get audited, I hear they are so scared of being exposed now, they hired a lobbyist for the first time in history, and are planning on running ads in movie theaters against an audit as a PSA.

[Nevada_Ballin]

In a good economy inflation around 3% (not monthly) yearly is acceptable. 2% in a month is not good.

Guess who is responsible though, the Federal Reserve. I can't wait until they get audited, I hear they are so scared of being exposed now, they hired a lobbyist for the first time in history, and are planning on running ads in movie theaters against an audit as a PSA.

What could they possibly say in a PSA to get public opinion in their favor against an audit? lol... i'd go to a movie just to see it. :)


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[theanalogkid]

What could they possibly say in a PSA to get public opinion in their favor against an audit? lol... i'd go to a movie just to see it. :)


.

Probably something along the lines "If you audit us, inflation will skyrocket, and will politicize the Fed."

However, the Fed already is very politicized. Bernanke went on TV a few weeks ago to act as a shill for the Obama Administration so he could keep his job. The louder he screams about an audit, the better the legislation probably is.

Bernie Sanders put a hold on Bernanke's confirmation hearing until the Senate votes on their version of Ron Paul's bill.

[kevin21boston]

Inflation when you made the statement: -.18% (that dash before the decimal means it's a NEGATIVE NUMBER!)
Inflation today: 1.84%



You're lack of intelligence concerns me. I made the statement at the end of November. The number for November came in at 1.8%

What does any of this have to do with the October number?



And LOL @
While the 2% jump in one month is notable, it would be ridiculous to say that either number is "out of control" like you attested to last week.

1.8% in a month should never ever happen, especially in such a deep recession. I don't know how you haven't learned this yet but prices aren't supposed to increase when the consumer doesn't have any money to spend on things.

[TheRealist]

You're lack of intelligence concerns me. I made the statement at the end of November. The number for November came in at 1.8%

What does any of this have to do with the October number?



And LOL @

1.8% in a month should never ever happen, especially in such a deep recession. I don't know how you haven't learned this yet but prices aren't supposed to increase when the consumer doesn't have any money to spend on things.

You forgot to mention when unemployment is at 10%...:p:)

[conviction]

You forgot to mention when unemployment is at 10%...:p:)

Gotta love jobless recoveries... Wait, that seems paradoxical :D

Lets remind ourselves that this percentage doesn't include skilled workers doing part time jobs and people who have given up searching.

[RicoVacilon]

Guess who is responsible though, the Federal Reserve.

Time Person Of The Year!

I couldn't believe that when I saw it.

[RicoVacilon]

You're lack of intelligence concerns me. I made the statement at the end of November. The number for November came in at 1.8%

Wow. . . so you admit making the statement in Novemeber but don't even realize that Nov's CPI numbers don't come out until DECEMEBER?

Like I said, there's not a whole lot I can do to help you then. If, however, you are less of a "numbers guy" and more of a "graph guy" have a look. Blue is positive, red is negative (note: it's a couple days old so it doesn't have NOVEMEBER's [the latest] data). http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/news/0910/gallery.economic_recovery/4.html

[theanalogkid]

Time Person Of The Year!

I couldn't believe that when I saw it.

Why couldn't you believe it? It's clear as day when you dump billions into the system you weaken the amount each dollar is worth. Inflation is the increasing of money and credit through artificial means, higher prices is just one effect.

This country is headed down the tubes fast. The quickest way the government could have spurred recovery was to do nothing. Remember the depression of 1920-21? Of course not, because it didn't last very long and no one even really noticed it. Why was it so short???? because the Fed and the government didn't intervene.

Remember the Great Depression? Everyone does. Why did it happen or even last so long. Government intervention. People blame Hoover for doing nothing and believing in lassiez-faire economics. That couldn't be further from the truth, he was a big interventionist in the economy. In fact, FDR called him the biggest spender in peacetime during the campaign. WWII didn't pull the US out of the recession. Rationing supplies to build ships and planes which consumers don't use doesn't create prosperity. Production not consumption drives an economy. Why do we consume more today? Because we can produce more. Stimulus bills try and increase consumption, without production.

Government intervention is only causing the prolonging of the recession. The banks that messed up should have failed and been liquidated, did Enron effect the markets when it failed and went into bankruptcy? No. Why were banks allowed to not fail? Because the government bails out the banking cartel when even they screw up. Who really gets mad if the banks fail, the top executives, and the wealthy who lent them money. They protect the few at the expense of the many. That's not socialism, that's fascism.

[RicoVacilon]

Why couldn't you believe it?

The man at the helm at the time of the collapse gets Time Person of the Year for trying to fix said collapse.



The quickest way the government could have spurred recovery was to do nothing.

I don't know about that, but I would agree that the healthiest thing to do would have been let it correct itself.

[conviction]

Why couldn't you believe it? It's clear as day when you dump billions into the system you weaken the amount each dollar is worth. Inflation is the increasing of money and credit through artificial means, higher prices is just one effect.

This country is headed down the tubes fast. The quickest way the government could have spurred recovery was to do nothing. Remember the depression of 1920-21? Of course not, because it didn't last very long and no one even really noticed it. Why was it so short???? because the Fed and the government didn't intervene.

Remember the Great Depression? Everyone does. Why did it happen or even last so long. Government intervention. People blame Hoover for doing nothing and believing in lassiez-faire economics. That couldn't be further from the truth, he was a big interventionist in the economy. In fact, FDR called him the biggest spender in peacetime during the campaign. WWII didn't pull the US out of the recession. Rationing supplies to build ships and planes which consumers don't use doesn't create prosperity. Production not consumption drives an economy. Why do we consume more today? Because we can produce more. Stimulus bills try and increase consumption, without production.

Government intervention is only causing the prolonging of the recession. The banks that messed up should have failed and been liquidated, did Enron effect the markets when it failed and went into bankruptcy? No. Why were banks allowed to not fail? Because the government bails out the banking cartel when even they screw up. Who really gets mad if the banks fail, the top executives, and the wealthy who lent them money. They protect the few at the expense of the many. That's not socialism, that's fascism.

It's nice to see someone who has a head on their shoulders

[theanalogkid]

The man at the helm at the time of the collapse gets Time Person of the Year for trying to fix said collapse.

I haven't looked at Time in awhile.



I don't know about that, but I would agree that the healthiest thing to do would have been let it correct itself.

Government should handle bankruptcy in a recession, not artificially manipulating interest rates. Often time you'll hear at the beginning of recession from politicians "Go out and spend your money." That's great, but what happens when people run out of money? There's never an answer for that.

Politicians try and paper over a recession because it's the political not the right thing to do. All their trying to do is stop the correction for happening, but in reality they are delaying it. It will happen, and each time they put it off, it will get worse and worse. Government institutions like the Fed or the FDIC are creating the moral hazard in the banking industry.

If there was no "safety" net, banks would not be taking so much risk. Right now, they take FDIC insured deposits, and make risky investments with them, knowing that the worst that will happen is, the FDIC will cover the depositors accounts, and the government will bail them out, and the top executives will lose their jobs, but still have made millions.

Banks should not be treated differently from every other business. Failing banks deserve to fail, just like every other business. Another bank can buy their assets in bankruptcy court.

[RicoVacilon]

Banks should not be treated differently from every other business. Failing banks deserve to fail, just like every other business. Another bank can buy their assets in bankruptcy court.

You have probably gathered by now that I am not a free market capitalist, but on this issue I agree that the market should be allowed to correct itself. Of course the market got F'ed to begin with because it wasn't left alone. . . it's a vicious cycle of intervention.

Anyways, it seems like all the reasons why the banks failed to begin with ("too big to fail," risky derivatives trading, etc) haven't changed! It's that sort of insane inaction that makes people either raging mad or just compeltely apathetic.

[kevin21boston]

Wow. . . so you admit making the statement in Novemeber but don't even realize that Nov's CPI numbers don't come out until DECEMEBER?

Like I said, there's not a whole lot I can do to help you then. If, however, you are less of a "numbers guy" and more of a "graph guy" have a look. Blue is positive, red is negative (note: it's a couple days old so it doesn't have NOVEMEBER's [the latest] data). http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/news/0910/gallery.economic_recovery/4.html


So because the number wasn't released, there was no way I could have known that inflation was going to go crazy. Okay dude. :rolleyes:

So you're saying that I didn't take into account the recent rise in commodity prices, the amount of money in the economy, and a general sense of awareness that things cost more than they did a couple of months ago. Okay dude. Just keep believing that.


And stop ducking the question-


How do we have such high inflation in a recession?


I've asked three damn times and you refuse to answer.

[RicoVacilon]

So because the number wasn't released, there was no way I could have known that inflation was going to go crazy. Okay dude. :rolleyes:

Quit strawmanning. Every can see it coming a mile away.


So you're saying that I didn't take into account the recent rise in commodity prices, the amount of money in the economy, and a general sense of awareness that things cost more than they did a couple of months ago. Okay dude. Just keep believing that.

Another straw man. I said nothing of the sort that you are attempting to paraphrase. You said "inflation is out of control" when that is empirically false--so I called you on it. And you still deflect.

But like I said, you're trying to swim in the 6' end when you should be in the kiddy pool.

[Nevada_Ballin]

Time still publishes a magazine?


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[theanalogkid]

And stop ducking the question-


How do we have such high inflation in a recession?


I've asked three damn times and you refuse to answer.

It's called stagflation. Keynesian models don't account for it, and because of that, they are crap, but somehow people still believe in them.

Blame the Federal Reserve though, not Obama (although he's part of the problem). Federal Reserve creates money out of thin air and because of the fractional reserve system we have $1 from the Federal Reserve creates $10 from the bank.