40 yard dash... the math behind the numbers

[jerseyjay14]

I've always been shocked by the hype over 40 yard dash times. Mostly because it doesnt consistently translate on to the field/running in pads on grass instead of a track surface, nor does it have anywhere near the indicator of success as compare to results in the shuttle drill or scouting the rout running and ability to get open thats done at the combine.

so i decided to look into the numbers, and see how much of a difference it makes between running a super fast 40 yard time(4.30 in this example) vs. somone who runs a the standard good time for a fast player(4.40) here are the results.

If you run a 4.30 40 yard dash then you are running at:
9.30 yards/sec
27.9 Feet/sec
334.8 inches/Sec
Call him player A


If you run a 4.40 40 yard dash then you are running at:
9.09 yards/sec
27.27 Feet/sec
327.24 inches/Sec
Call him Player B


So if they are running side by side, after 4.3 seconds:
- player A will have traveled 1,439 inches
- player B will have traveled 1,407 inches


So from that, in 4.3 seconds Player A would have created 2'8" seperation from player B.

The average arms length of a 6' male is 2' 10" Meaning that in 4.3 seconds, the player who runs the blazing fast 40 time has not created more then "arm space" from the slower player.

Furthermore, QBs usually dont have over 4 seconds to let go of the ball. They usually would like to get rid of the ball in something closer to 3 seconds. so lets assume for the a second that a QB has 3 seconds to throw the ball. in those 3 seconds:

Player A would have traveled 1004 inches
Player B would have traveled 981 inches

Meaning that in the 3 seconds the QB had to get rid of the ball player A would have created 1'11" of seperation on player B. Far less then the average "arms length" of a 6' male

Obviously no conclusions could be drawn here... but how about a few things to think about?

1) What is more likely to get more separation - a good cut and footwork, or speed that adds up to 1'11" of separation?

2) If your covering someone, whats more likely to allow you to stay close to someone? good anticipation, footwork and discipline? or being 1'11" faster then the other guy?

3) how much of that 1'11" is negated at the snap of the ball - meaning:

- on a track, at the sound of a gun you can run at 4.3 speed, but how much is that altered at the snap of the ball with a defender bumping you?

- on a track at the sound of a gun you can run at 4.3 speed, and gain a near 2' advantage, but how much of that 2 foot space is eaten up when the WR knows when to start and you dont?

[jerseyjay14]

Obviously no conclusions could be drawn here... but how about a few things to think about?

1) What is more likely to get more separation - a good cut and footwork, or speed that adds up to 1'11" of separation?

I think a good cut is likely to get more separation then that with all else being equal. Getting a defender off balance or back on his heels i think definitely creates more space then the speed does.

2) If your covering someone, whats more likely to allow you to stay close to someone? good anticipation, footwork and discipline? or being 1'11" faster then the other guy?

I think this is where the other things are more important, on the other side of the ball. speed is great but if you got beat on the cut speed in such a short window of recover time isnt as valuable as anticipation and keeping balance

3) how much of that 1'11" is negated at the snap of the ball - meaning:

- on a track, at the sound of a gun you can run at 4.3 speed, but how much is that altered at the snap of the ball with a defender bumping you?

- on a track at the sound of a gun you can run at 4.3 speed, and gain a near 2' advantage, but how much of that 2 foot space is eaten up when the WR knows when to start and you dont?

and isnt this what it all boils down to? does it translate? how often does a WR go unimpeded in a straight line for 3+ seconds. not to mention the difference in the surfaces and lack of pads/helmet. I wouldnt doubt that 40 times change dramatically and who is faster changes to some extent, with and without pads on... but thats speculation.

[JoeJGibbs]

lol




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Your hands

[QBStokes4]

id be more concerned with the cone drills than the 40. acceleration out of breaks is the most important thing for wrs and dbs IMO

if you have a guy beat by 1 ft and break on a post and he hesitates for a split second, having better acceleration will either help the CB catch up again or it will help the WR get free

watch taylor mays run his 40, and tell me thats not one of the best starts youve ever seen (2nd time)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDR3-DrUxu0 (around 2:35)

[Kgs 69]

Someone should foward this post to Al Davis.

[Calhoun County]

I've always been shocked by the hype over 40 yard dash times. Mostly because it doesnt consistently translate on to the field/running in pads on grass instead of a track surface, nor does it have anywhere near the indicator of success as compare to results in the shuttle drill or scouting the rout running and ability to get open thats done at the combine.

so i decided to look into the numbers, and see how much of a difference it makes between running a super fast 40 yard time(4.30 in this example) vs. somone who runs a the standard good time for a fast player(4.40) here are the results.



Obviously no conclusions could be drawn here... but how about a few things to think about?

1) What is more likely to get more separation - a good cut and footwork, or speed that adds up to 1'11" of separation?

2) If your covering someone, whats more likely to allow you to stay close to someone? good anticipation, footwork and discipline? or being 1'11" faster then the other guy?

3) how much of that 1'11" is negated at the snap of the ball - meaning:

- on a track, at the sound of a gun you can run at 4.3 speed, but how much is that altered at the snap of the ball with a defender bumping you?

- on a track at the sound of a gun you can run at 4.3 speed, and gain a near 2' advantage, but how much of that 2 foot space is eaten up when the WR knows when to start and you dont?

I've always tried to explain this to folks but could never word it the way you have. Great write up JJ. Another example would be all these corners and backs that light it up in the 40 but. Have zero hip movement, footwork, and anticipation. Revis for example doesn't have what experts call "top end speed" but he negates the speed up a faster WR at the snap with his footwork, technique, and anticipation. The same goes for a runningback between the tackles. That 4.2 doesn't mean much if you can't get to the third level of the defense. Hell I say make these clowns run the 40 in full pads. Lol

[A Disciple]

phuuuuuuuuug that... forward this to EA. lol

[djKianoosh]

EA wouldn't know what to do with it LOL


WR's can get separation by many ways, agility, cuts and fakes and stuff like that. DB's have to use anticipation some, but they can also stay with their man if they are balanced and can change direction quickly and efficiently.

straight 40 times have nothing to do with that. the only part of the 40 that is relevant in football has to be the first 10 yards. and it should only be judged relative to other players, meaning I dont want to see the recorded times. I want to see a superimposed video (like how nfl network did Rich Eisen's 40) of the players I want to compare, and make sure it's time-synched to when they actually start. and that's mostly relevant to RBs and WR's and TE's. players that tend to go forward (or blitzing defenders).

[A Disciple]

EA wouldn't know what to do with it LOL


WR's can get separation by many ways, agility, cuts and fakes and stuff like that. DB's have to use anticipation some, but they can also stay with their man if they are balanced and can change direction quickly and efficiently.

straight 40 times have nothing to do with that. the only part of the 40 that is relevant in football has to be the first 10 yards. and it should only be judged relative to other players, meaning I dont want to see the recorded times. I want to see a superimposed video (like how nfl network did Rich Eisen's 40) of the players I want to compare, and make sure it's time-synched to when they actually start. and that's mostly relevant to RBs and WR's and TE's. players that tend to go forward (or blitzing defenders).

you forgot "pushing off" lol.

[KingStyle]

What if you get a fast guy and improve his footwork? Then regardless he will still get more separation.

I think thats the key, you cant make a slow guy faster, but you can make a fast guy better.

Or so they try.

[ThaSpecialist]

It's a big deal because you can't teach 4.2 speed, where as you can teach dudes how to run/sell routes.

You can't teach DBs how to be fast and recover lost ground. They're either fast enough to, or the aren't.

[KingStyle]

it's a big deal because you can't teach 4.2 speed, where as you can teach dudes how to run/sell routes.

You can't teach dbs how to be fast and recover lost ground. They're either fast enough to, or the aren't.

thats what i said