Attribute Spotlight: Speed (SPD) Madden 13 Rookie WR Speed projections.

[mannmicj]

Here is my newest blog (5/20): Projecting Madden 13 Rookie Wide Receiver (WR) speed (SPD) attributes:

http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/20...speed-spd.html

I only did one position this week, because there are so many rookie WR's coming into the NFL. This is not designed to be 100%, but I do believe it will be very close for most rookie WR's. Enjoy and have a great week.

At the end of this blog, I have also included some suggestions for EA in regards to player ratings/attributes as a whole.

[GAV]

Good stuff MJ. I agree that 40 times should be the starting point for speed in Madden, with a +1 or -1 being left to the developer's discretion for players that play faster or slower than their 40 time.

What do you think about Miami Dolphin WR Davone Bess' speed rating? It looks to me like he plays alot faster on Sundays than his Madden counterpart does.

[MonoxideChild]

I really like your blog man, good stuff. It's refreshing to have something interesting to discuss about Madden. Keep it up.


Speed, IMO, is probably one of the things they nail in the ratings. I think the gameplay is a lot better since they took everything down a notch.

[mannmicj]

Good stuff MJ. I agree that 40 times should be the starting point for speed in Madden, with a +1 or -1 being left to the developer's discretion for players that play faster or slower than their 40 time.

What do you think about Miami Dolphin WR Davone Bess' speed rating? It looks to me like he plays alot faster on Sundays than his Madden counterpart does.

Bess ran a 4.64 at the combine and a 4.60 at his Proday. That would project to an 81 and 83 speed respectfully. That combine time was horrible and one of the worst among WR's in 2008. He didn't improve much at his Proday, which normally favors the prospect. The fastest unofficial time I could find on Bess was 4.54 which would project to an 86.

On the other hand, Bess did much better at the 3-cone drill, posting a 6.97 (T15th out of 41 WR's at that combine). Per NFL.com "The 3 cone drill tests an athlete's ability to change directions at a high speed" The agility (AGI) attribute comes to mind here.

On the Short Shuttle he was timed a 4.27 (16th out of 41 WR's at that combine). Per NFL.com "What it tests is the athlete's lateral quickness and explosion in short areas. " Again to me that is AGI with acceleration (ACC).

I have not done an in-depth study on how cone and shuttle time effect ACC and AGI in Madden, but to me it indicates that Bess is more quick than fast. Another indication that Bess has trouble separating and lacks elite speed is his career 10.3 Yard average per reception. He is annually toward the bottom in that category. His YAC is average in most years.

He is a good slot receiver and there is a reason for that. He runs good short routes, but lacks the speed to separate from defenders on deep routes. His best trait is his agility, but he isn't elite after the catch. Even watching tape, you can see his agility at work, but you can also see him getting caught from behind by just about everyone on the defense outside of DT's.

One more tidbit. The Dolphins don't even attempt to get him deep balls much. He was only targeted 9 times last season on passes over 20 yards (that was Tied for 72 among WR's in 2011 per ProFootballFocus.com). Part of that is because he is a slot WR (Out of his 79 total targets, 63 (79.7%) were while he was in the slot). Bess had 314 (55.7%) snaps in the slot this year to 249 (44.3%) at flanker or split end. I think it's safe to assume that he has a hard time getting open when he is not in the slot and therefore is not a targeted by his QB's.

His career long is 41 yards (his only 40+ yard reception) and out of his 260 career receptions, only 27 went over 20 yards. His longest punt return was 47 yards and his longest kick return was 32 yards. He is simply not a game breaker in anyway, shape or form.

Here are some of his final Madden 12 attributes:

SPD - 85
AGI - 94 down from 95 to begin the year.
ACC - 96
ELU - 76
RTE - 94 down from 97 to begin the year
CAT - 95

I actually think Bess' SPD is fine were it's at. He's got credit for his ACC and AGI.

The attribute I think is the most inaccurate here, is 95 CAT. According to PFF, Bess dropped 8.93% of catchable targets in 2011, 6.98% in 2010, 8.54% in 2009, and 8.57% in 2008. With the exception of 2010 where he clearly above average, he has been just average the other 3 seasons.

I only bring this up, because the perception is that he is very sure handed, but the statistics say otherwise. 95 CAT is an elite attribute, in reality he is not elite when it comes to catching the football.

[GAV]

Good to know MJ. Thank you. How did you figure out how the the speed ratings work? I wouldn't doubt that you have them dead-on.

[mannmicj]

Good to know MJ. Thank you. How did you figure out how the the speed ratings work? I wouldn't doubt that you have them dead-on.

I won't be dead-on, but I think it will be close for many of the players.

Here is my process for data collection and interpretation:

1. I collected the initial (1st Madden 12 roster) SPD attributes for all rookie RB's and CB's in 2011, plus I collected their final (Last Madden 12 roster) SPD rating if there was any change.

2. I then collected all of their 40 times. If they participated at the NFL combine, I used that 40 time. If they didn't run at the NFL combine I used there college ProDay time. Otherwise, I noted the only unofficial reported time I could find on the internet. My primary references were ESPN.com, NFL.com, and NFLDraftScout.com.

3. I created a spreadsheet for each position and transferred the data to a scatter plot to determine if there was any correlation between Madden 12 rookie SPD attributes and their 40 times. I used initial Madden 12 SPD attributes for the scatter plot.

4. I repeated steps 1 thru 3 for all 2nd year RB's and CB's in Madden 12 for a later comparison.

5. In the end I used this information (and a formula) to predict the Madden 13 Rookie speed (SPD) attributes for every RB and CB the went to the combine, was drafted, or signed as an undrafted free agent (UDFA) this off-season.



I have since repeated these step for QB, MLB's, and now WR's. All of that information is added to the data set, making the formula more accurate. I now have 214 rookie speed ratings gathered with their 40 times. I use MS Excel to crunch my numbers.

My projections are based on EA's (Donny Moore's) rookie speed ratings tendencies. There is no guarantee he won't change his tendencies, but it's also possible that he doesn't deviate from previous years.

[Michura]

I'm assuming you just used simple linear regression to make predictions. Seems like a very easy and sensible thing to do.

[mannmicj]

I'm assuming you just used simple linear regression to make predictions. Seems like a very easy and sensible thing to do.

You are correct, it's not rocket science by any means Anyone willing to spend the time could figure it out . Within the blog is a website link that discusses this type of statistical analysis.

It's not 100%, but the correlation is certainly strong enough to provide a valid prediction for rookie speeds in Madden 13, based on Donny's recent tendencies. The most difficult part is gathering all of the data, it takes some time.

One of my goals was to give fans a heads up on the incoming rookie speed attributes. This was a good way to do that. A lot of people are curious about rookie ratings and EA releases that info in very small amounts. Hopefully my blogs can be entertaining and informative.

[Michura]

If the data was more readily available I would suggest they use the players' last 20 yards of the 40 yard dash. As it is, the 40 is a measure of both top speed and acceleration and SPD is supposed to measure just top speed.

[mannmicj]

If the data was more readily available I would suggest they use the players' last 20 yards of the 40 yard dash. As it is, the 40 is a measure of both top speed and acceleration and SPD is supposed to measure just top speed.

Agree. The first 10 yards are very important for acceleration as well. NFL teams get the times for all of the intervals. Maybe in the future all of those splits will be available.

[GAV]

If the data was more readily available I would suggest they use the players' last 20 yards of the 40 yard dash. As it is, the 40 is a measure of both top speed and acceleration and SPD is supposed to measure just top speed.

I agree and have some first hand understanding of this. When I was in high school, I worked hard to keep my 40 time the same - while also gaining strength. My 40 time remained the same by improving my accelleration through improving my strength and technique, but I definitely had lost some of my top speed. My 40 time remained the same through all four years of high school though - 4.58 seconds - even though I was a drastically different kind of runner.

[mannmicj]

I agree and have some first hand understanding of this. When I was in high school, I worked hard to keep my 40 time the same - while also gaining strength. My 40 time remained the same by improving my accelleration through improving my strength and technique, but I definitely had lost some of my top speed. My 40 time remained the same through all four years of high school though - 4.58 seconds - even though I was a drastically different kind of runner.

Great example GAV.