Looking Back on BAD Predictions!

[Coach Stag]

Good stuff on NFL.com today:

Playmate, aging fighter jock almost predict exact final score!

By Gregg Easterbrook
Special to NFL.com

(Feb. 14, 2006) -- Now that Al Michaels has been traded for Oswald the Rabbit, will there be a fad of trading sports personalities for cartoon characters? The Eagles could trade Terrell Owens for Roger Ramjet -- Ramjet's goodie-goodie persona might be just what Philadelphia needs at the moment. After seeing the impact Troy Polamalu had on Pittsburgh's Super Bowl run, many clubs will offer draft picks for the Tazmanian Devil. Teams looking to stretch the field will be in the market for the Road Runner, though as with a lot of speed guys, there will be questions about his hands -- especially since Road Runner has no hands. Now that coaches, too, are traded, Foghorn Leghorn might be ideal for the next vacancy: he'd be great at halftime tirades. Will NFL.com's Tuesday Morning Quarterback and Dr. Cheeks become sought-after commodities? We are, after all, both cartoon characters.

In other football news, sports pundits love to dash off NFL predictions, confident no one will remember what they foretold. Tuesday Morning Quarterback remembers. I have a mind like a steel vault -- that is, rusty -- but write things down. Welcome to my annual Bad Predictions Review. You may end the column by muttering to yourself, "I should have been mentioned because I predicted Alex Smith would lead the league in fumble recoveries" or "I should have been mentioned because I predicted Pittsburgh would win the Super Bowl by a score of 17-10" (actual prediction by retired test pilot Chuck Yeager to Scripps Howard News Service). But remember, this is my annual bad predictions review.

And in other football news, forgot conferences -- how did the states do in 2005? See my annual State Standings below.

Bad Predictions, Category One: Category One is offseason predictions, and "off" is the operative word. Chris Berman of ESPN forecast the Lions to have "a breakout season." Detroit finished 5-11. Three weeks after calling Drew Bledsoe terrible, Peter King of Sports Illustrated declared Dallas, which had just signed Bledsoe to be its starter, the "most improved team in the NFL." Jeffri Chadiha of Sports Illustrated foresaw that Bill Parcells was "likely" to leave those same Cowboys when the season ended.

Ray Glier of NBC Sports predicted that Atlanta would make the Super Bowl; Atlanta did not make the playoffs. "What puts the Falcons over the top and makes them fit for the Super Bowl will be Michael Vick’s ability to pass from the pocket," Glier added; Vick finished 25th in passer rating.

Adam Schefter of NFL Network foresaw, "Doug Jolley should catch about 70 passes in the Jets offense." He caught 29. "Call it a hunch, but this year the Atlanta Falcons don't wind up with the NFL's 30th-ranked passing attack," Clark Judge of CBS SportsLine predicted.

They wound up 27th. "The Lions are poised to make a run at their first winning season since 2000," Judge also predicted. Joey Harrington "is approaching the skill level required to be a very good quarterback," Pat Kirwan of NFL.com predicted. Harrington was benched.

Gil Brandt of NFL.com predicted Julius Jones would lead the league in rushing; he finished 17th.

The St. Louis Post Dispatch predicted, "Take it to the bank, the Rams will go 10-6." Let's hope the bank did not charge an early withdrawal fee when the Rams went 6-10. "There is no reason [Tim Couch] can't play 10 more years in the league," Len Pasquarelli of ESPN.com forecast. There was a reason -- Couch was not on any team in 2005. It is hard to play in the NFL if you are not on a team. Drafting Maurice Clarett was "a good move" for Denver, Pete Prisco of SportsLine predicted: "Clarett will help this team." Clarett was waived in training camp.


Bad Predictions, Category Two: Now it gets interesting -- predictions made in early September, eve of the season's start. Sports Illustrated devoted a September cover to predicting the Panthers would win the Super Bowl, by an exact final score of Carolina 31, Indianapolis 27. The Sports Illustrated article, by veteran football writer Paul Zimmerman, predicted outcomes of all division and wild-card races: only two of Zimmerman's eight predicted division winners won their divisions, while eight of his predicted 12 postseason teams failed to make the playoffs. Zimmerman predicted the Seattle Seahawks would not make the playoffs, while he foresaw of Ben Roethlisberger, "I don't think everything will fall into place." Around the same time the Sports Illustrated web site ran five dueling sets of predictions: none had either Pittsburgh or Seattle reaching the Super Bowl.

ESPN: The Magazine ("Published on Earth: The Planet") predicted Minnesota would win the Super Bowl; the Vikings did not make the playoffs. This is the second consecutive year ESPN Mag's predicted Super Bowl winner failed to make the playoffs; the previous season it anointed Kansas City. The Sporting News predicted Philadelphia would win the Super Bowl; the Eagles did not make the playoffs.

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Jay Glazer of Fox Sports foresaw the Falcons winning the Super Bowl; Atlanta did not make the playoffs. Glazer predicted, "the Chargers should be a deep playoff threat;" San Diego did not make the playoffs. Ron Borges of MSNBC forecast that neither the Steelers nor Seahawks would reach the conference championship round. The New York Times offered two Super Bowl predictions, Eagles over Colts and Patriots over Falcons; two of the four New York Times predicted Super Bowl entrants failed to make the playoffs. "The Eagles should win at least 10 games simply by showing up," the Times added. Philadelphia showed up and won six games.

In September, USA Today ran four Super Bowl predictions: Colts over Eagles (predicted twice), Eagles over Colts and Patriots over Eagles. Thus in eight guesses, USA Today failed to get even one Super Bowl entrant correct, while four of the paper's predicted Super Bowl teams failed to make the postseason.

Clark Judge of CBS SportsLine predicted the Eagles would win the Super Bowl; Philadelphia did not make the playoffs. Judge predicted Seattle would finish third in its division and miss the postseason, while the Steelers would go no farther than the second round. Seven of Judge's 12 predicted playoff teams did not make the playoffs. Judge predicted Donovan McNabb would be the MVP "whether T.O. is in or out of the lineup." A mere three days after predicting defending champion New England would not reach the AFC championship, Judge wrote that "the league has been warned" that New England could repeat as Super Bowl champs.

Then there was Fox Sports' meta-forecast of 10 dueling season predictions. Fox Sports forecast the Vikings, Eagles and Rams among its Super Bowl winners; none made the playoffs. None of Fox Sports' 10 forecast Super Bowl pairings, a total of 20 guesses, had either the Steelers or Seahawks appearing. Three of Fox Sports' 10 forecast Coach of the Year winners were fired or resigned within days of the season's end.

And then there was the ESPN.com meta-forecast. Twelve experts divined the Super Bowl, and none of them had the Seahawks appearing in the game. ESPN.com's predicted NFC champions were: Vikings (predicted four times), Eagles (predicted thee times), Falcons (predicted twice), Rams, Redskins and Panthers. That is, 10 of ESPN.com's 12 predicted NFC championship teams failed to make the playoffs. Four ESPN experts thought the Super Bowl would be won by either Philadelphia or St. Louis; neither made the playoffs. Joe Theismann of ESPN.com did pick the Steelers to hoist the Lombardi.

Theismann also picked Kurt Warner as league MVP; Warner was benched. And as noted by reader Carl Schreiner of Edina, Minn., "All 12 ESPN experts picked an offensive player as the MVP, but only three picked the same player as offensive player of the year. If a player is the overall MVP, how can another player in his same category be better?"


Bad Arizona Cardinals Predictions:"You heard it here first, Kurt Warner will lead the cardinals to their first NFC West title," Michael Silver of Sports Illustrated prophesied. "Arizona will be a breakout team," Steve Young declared on ESPN. "The Cardinals could be an NFC playoff contender," Mark Maske of the Washington Post foresaw.

Arizona's offseason moves "might be enough to have them challenge for the division title," John Clayton of ESPN.com declared. "There's something about [the Cardinals] that makes you think maybe, just maybe, they'll be forced to cancel their January tee times," Clark Judge forecast. Dan Pompei of The Sporting News, Pete Prisco of CBS SportsLine, Adrian Hasenmayer and Dayn Perry of Fox Sports, Merrill Hoge and Joe Theismann of ESPN had Dennis Green as Coach of the Year.

Peter King of Sports Illustrated, Elliott Kalb of Fox Sports and John Clayton, Jeremy Green, Hoge, Len Pasquarelli, Michael Smith and Theismann of ESPN.com had the Cardinals either winning their division or making the playoffs.

Nobody specialized in bad Arizona predictions like Pete Prisco of CBS SportsLine. "It's almost too unreal to write, but here goes: Watch out for the Arizona Cardinals in 2005," Prisco offered in the offseason. "Here's a prediction, the Arizona Cardinals will be contenders in the NFC West this season," Prisco said in another article. "The signing of Kurt Warner gives the Cardinals a legitimate chance to win the NFC West," Prisco said in a third article." The Cardinals "will win the NFC West" and Dennis Green will be coach of the year, Prisco predicted in yet another article. Four times Prisco predicted a great year for the Cardinals. At least he learned his lesson, right?

December 2005: "This may sound funny, but I don't think this team is that far away. If they improve their running game in 2006, they could push for a playoff spot." Arizona was 4-9 and last in the league in rushing when Prisco wrote that.

Bad Oakland Raiders Predictions: Kimberly Jones of the Newark Star-Ledger said Kerry Collins was "certain" to best his career high of 22 touchdown passes. Collins threw for 20 touchdowns. Adam Schein of Fox Sports predicted "Oakland's offense will challenge the Colts for being the greatest in the NFL." Oakland finished 20th in offense. Prisco foresaw, "With Randy Moss, the Raiders are contenders in the AFC West. Without him, they're 8-8, at best." The Raiders had Moss and finished 4-12, maybe they should have cut him and finished 8-8! Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com predicted Oakland would win the Super Bowl; the Raiders did not make the playoffs. Here's a preseason prediction that almost came to pass for yours truly: "Oakland could be the worst team in the league."

Bad Houston Texans Prediction: Houston "should make the playoffs," Clark Judge of CBS SportsLine predicted. Houston finished with the worst record in the league. Judge added that the Texans "might have made the playoffs a year ago were it not for a 1-5 stretch." This is like saying Russia might have won the Crimean War, if only it had not lost all the battles.


Bonus: Mike Tice Predictions: In October, Vikings owner Zygi Wilf said he backed coach Mike Tice "100 percent;" a few hours after the final regular-season game, Wilf fired Tice. Peter King of Sports Illustrated and the scouting service Stats Inc. predicted Tice would be Coach of the Year.

Bonus: Quarterback Prediction: Dolphins' owner Wayne Huizenga predicted A.J. Feeley could be "another Dan Marino." If only he had been another David Woodley!


Bonus: "Could" Predictions: A lot of things could happen. Kenneth Lay could give the money back. Congress could consider only the public interest when enacting legislation. Roselyn Sanchez could call me her Valentine. Many sport predictions are couched with "could." Arizona "could" win the NFC West -- John Clayton. Oakland receiver Ronald Curry "could have a big year" -- Len Pasquarelli. (Curry caught two passes in 2005.) St. Louis "could" score 500 points -- Clayton. (The Rams scored 363 points.) The Lions "could be a surprise" -- Vic Carucci, NFL.com. (If you expected them to go 0-16 then they were, in fact, a surprise.) "J.P. Losman could be this year's Ben Roethlisberger" -- Gil Brandt, NFL.com. "The Panthers could win their division or even reach the Super Bowl, or they could miss the playoffs entirely" -- the New York Times.

Bonus: Bad Colts' Predictions: "I will say it again: The Colts will go undefeated." Lincoln Kennedy, NFL Total Access, early November. "The Colts will run the table … the Colts are going to go unbeaten." Tony Kornheiser, the Washington Post, late November. "The Colts in eight weeks will win the Super Bowl." Michael Wilbon, ESPN, early December. "I don't see how Indianapolis loses" the AFC. Clark Judge, CBS SportsLine, late December.

Bad Predictions Category Three: Absurdly Specific: Andrew Perloff of Sports Illustrated predicted that rookie backs J.J. Arrington, Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, Frank Gore, Ryan Moats, Eric Shelton and Carnell Williams would combine to rush for 6,600 yards; they combined to rush for 3,613 yards. Pete Prisco predicted of Randy Moss, "He will have 100 catches and 16 touchdowns." Moss had 60 catches and eight touchdowns.

"Brett Favre is primed for a good year, maybe 31 touchdowns, 16 picks," Peter King of Sports Illustrated predicted. Favre threw for 20 touchdowns and 29 interceptions. King makes so many absurdly specific predictions it's hard to know which ones are tongue-in-cheek. For instance, in the offseason he predicted LaMont Jordan would rush for 1,383 yards.

My favorite King-ism: In June he predicted the exact final score of the AFC Championship Game would be New England 13, San Diego 6; then in September he predicted the score of the same contest would be New England 30, San Diego 13. Last summer, King predicted Shaun Alexander would carry 23 times for 94 yards in the Super Bowl, weirdly close to his actual tally of 20 carries for 95 yards.

It's just that King, who was predicting the Pats to repeat, predicted Alexander would get his yards for New England, following a predicted trade that never happened.

[Coach Stag]

Worst Predictions of the Year
Third runner-up, Clifton Brown, New York Times: Of the NFC West: "Nobody from this division is going to the Super Bowl."

Second runner-up, Tuesday Morning Quarterback, NFL.com: "People are predicting a big year for Carolina, but TMQ is less sanguine. Carolina strikes yours truly as having significant weaknesses, so I am adopting a wait-and-see policy. I will wait and see if the Panthers do well. If they do, I will claim to have predicted it."

First runner-up, Paul Zimmerman, Sports Illustrated: After writing a Sports Illustrated cover story predicting Carolina would win the Super Bowl, Zimmerman predicted Carolina would lose to Chicago in the second round of the playoffs.

Worst Prediction of the Year: Jim Reineking of Fox Sports, for a spectacular feat of multiple bad predictions. In a September article that has mysteriously disappeared from the Fox web site, Reineking made NFL predictions in groups of five. One was "Five Teams Guaranteed to Make the Playoffs." Three of them -- the Eagles, Falcons and Jets -- did not make the playoffs. Another heading was "Five Teams That'll Be Just Awful." One, the Redskins, made the playoffs. Another category was "Five Players Who If They Got Hurt Their Teams Would Be Crushed." One was Daunte Culpepper. Minnesota was 2-5 when Culpepper got hurt; under backup Brad Johnson, the Vikings went 7-2. Another heading was "Five Players Who Will Thrive in New Environments." Two were Kurt Warner and Rod Gardner; Warner was benched and Gardner waived. Another category was, "Five Teams Primed for a Fall." One was the Denver Broncos, who made the AFC Championship Game. Two others were -- the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers.

[T.J. Davis]

Best Prediction of the Year: "Who really is going to care for a thread LIKE THIS".
-RealMDPlaya

[Bearfanmike20]

Worst prediction of the year...

Dr. Z predicted the bears to be the worst team in the nfl. 32nd. Dead last.. first pickin it. He was close right???...

[Coach Stag]

Best Prediction of the Year: "Who really is going to care for a thread LIKE THIS".
-RealMDPlaya

Worst statement of the year: see above.

Note to MDPlaya: A question isn't a prediction.

Man if you're gonna take a shot at someone, at least check to see if the guns loaded.... Good try!

[Coach Stag]

These were some of my faves:



Ray Glier of NBC Sports predicted that Atlanta would make the Super Bowl; Atlanta did not make the playoffs. "What puts the Falcons over the top and makes them fit for the Super Bowl will be Michael Vick’s ability to pass from the pocket," Glier added; Vick finished 25th in passer rating.

"Call it a hunch, but this year the Atlanta Falcons don't wind up with the NFL's 30th-ranked passing attack," Clark Judge of CBS SportsLine predicted.

They wound up 27th. "The Lions are poised to make a run at their first winning season since 2000," Judge also predicted. Joey Harrington "is approaching the skill level required to be a very good quarterback," Pat Kirwan of NFL.com predicted. Harrington was benched.

Gil Brandt of NFL.com predicted Julius Jones would lead the league in rushing; he finished 17th.

[T.J. Davis]

Worst statement of the year: see above.

Note to MDPlaya: A question isn't a prediction.

Man if you're gonna take a shot at someone, at least check to see if the guns loaded.... Good try!

LMAO, ha ha. True, true. I want to say soemthing like this: SOmeone is going to make a thread about are predictions and end up gettign a donut.

[Coach Stag]

LMAO, ha ha. True, true. I want to say soemthing like this: SOmeone is going to make a thread about are predictions and end up gettign a donut.

I see....